Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 81989.274856 86557.236059 91124.948208 96031.882814 101150.783960 106330.035564 111963.151991
2025-05-11 74023.192256 80977.151747 88126.999582 96017.596224 104471.227177 113246.105873 123032.727277
2025-05-18 68495.192893 77071.601291 86085.002831 96243.119639 107351.555273 119108.942976 132472.670030
2025-05-25 64121.923288 73888.037875 84342.475790 96332.221492 109667.363097 124008.242593 140560.870828
2025-06-01 61214.147572 72007.768619 83747.251645 97413.731360 112834.026201 129641.929617 149293.750076
2025-06-08 57903.015674 69427.324815 82146.754325 97158.539851 114320.163783 133255.224154 155652.385577
2025-06-15 56055.468418 68365.435778 82129.930749 98572.750480 117587.409390 138790.761993 164124.425643
2025-06-22 54048.794111 66989.162720 81637.401696 99335.727092 120022.900264 143319.836376 171415.026662
2025-06-29 51881.627156 65307.663819 80685.730632 99468.117109 121646.926135 146857.305312 177527.131832
2025-07-06 49870.098495 63712.430424 79746.240204 99531.575209 123120.023228 150168.221591 183344.218682
2025-07-13 48944.216669 63366.581703 80240.910015 101254.725832 126522.013868 155719.997502 191791.701468
2025-07-20 47949.931845 62882.744109 80524.400882 102687.585802 129554.803051 160831.017825 199735.436222
2025-07-27 46586.684673 61913.419025 80202.446772 103387.269522 131728.241299 164968.705586 206604.985225
2025-08-03 44928.337890 60518.534461 79310.548296 103349.942246 132981.567066 167996.802280 212160.081660
2025-08-10 43509.233280 59370.391403 78674.860460 103584.511406 134533.295723 171365.221298 218123.887345
2025-08-17 42110.505049 58196.005120 77959.728777 103678.039324 135878.480898 174463.759062 223757.537011
2025-08-24 41289.542682 57730.160394 78106.005730 104825.610374 138514.518968 179134.934121 231324.347612
2025-08-31 39868.464519 56436.354563 77159.062477 104554.741555 139350.735894 181579.750962 236158.716800
2025-09-07 39315.132825 56256.953180 77617.320288 106055.448249 142405.772060 186769.298857 244400.373613
2025-09-14 38491.775702 55690.014430 77551.139088 106864.993395 144576.843270 190863.718675 251303.534079
2025-09-21 37424.879347 54763.126752 76986.914198 107005.456700 145877.703014 193863.925309 256849.667758
2025-09-28 36378.910071 53831.657195 76387.026388 107072.783939 147064.774998 196711.216191 262207.345139
2025-10-05 36100.714053 53931.678183 77137.574462 108900.819017 150522.032571 202436.001635 271216.105845